Jobs unlikely to recover from COVID-19 until 2021? Yale, World Bank experts discuss labour market recovery
Updated: 2020-07-15 05:33:42 KST
We're seeing tens of millions of people around the world losing their jobs, being forced to take pay cuts and having their livelihoods compromised due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
The OECD says this pandemic will have ten times the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on jobs around the world.
The most concerning issue is that the impact has been disproportionate. The OECD says low-income workers are paying the highest price during the pandemic, as they are twice as likely to stop working completely, compared to their higher-income peers who have the options to work from home.
Today, we discuss the impact of COVID-19 on jobs and when of if they will come back.
Joining me is Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of Economics at Yale University, and Dr. Achim Schmillen, Senior Economist at the World Bank.
Professor Larry: The OECD projects unemployment could reach nearly 10 percent in its member countries by the end of 2020, or even as high as 12 percent if there is a 2nd wave.
Which economies will see the most layoffs?
Dr. Schmillen: Which members of society will suffer the most from the fallout?
Professor Larry: We've seen thousands of jobs being lost in the aviation industry of just a single country. What challenges do governments face in responding to such massive layoffs?
Dr. Schmillen: What's your view? What challenges are governments dealing with right now as they handle massive unemployment?
Professor Larry: The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 11.1 percent in June, from an all-time high of 14.7 percent in April as many people returned to the labor market following weeks of virus-induced restrictions. However, is it too soon to be optimistic?
To both: A jobs recovery is not expected until after 2021, according to the OECD. A recent study by Duke University projects a similar outlook. Do you both share this view?
Professor Larry: What does this mean for college graduates, and new entrants to the job market?
Dr. Schmillen: How should they prepare for such changes?
Again, this question's for both of you. There are concerns about the rapid automation and subsequent elimination of jobs over the stretch of the pandemic. What major changes do you expect in the labor market?
Professor Larry: How will social insurance systems have to adjust to this new normal?
Dr. Schmillen: Which chronic problems, if any, do you think will change for the better in the labor market in the wake of this pandemic?
Hopefully, governments can tackle long-standing issues in the job market and help create a system that will empower workers in the new normal. Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of Economics at Yale University, and Dr. Achim Schmillen, Senior Economist at the World Bank. Thank you for joining the program.