North Korea experts in the U.S. believe the Kim Jong-un regime might carry out another provocation in the next several months.
At a recent roundtable on the South Korean presidential election, Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed to past records, saying whenever there was an election in the South, Pyongyang's provocation followed 16 to 18 weeks later.
Cha even suggested North Korea could conduct a third nuclear test.
Scott Snyder from the Council on Foreign Relations agreed with Cha's forecast, adding North Korea has always tested a new administration south of the border.
But Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. envoy to the six-party talks said he didn't think Kim Jong-un would risk a military provocation south of the border, as it would prompt a strong counteraction from Seoul.
The experts said they didn't expect the South Korean president-elect to unconditionally engage with the North, but rather implement a principle-based approach: building trust to renew relations, while pressuring Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear ambitions.
Choi You-sun, Arirang News.
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