Russian Think Tank Predicts the Gradual Collapse of N. Korea by 2030Updated: 2011-11-04 12:00:00 (KST)
A recent report by Russian think tank, Institute of World Economy and International Relations says that the North Korean regime is in the process of gradual collapse and predicts its economy will be absorbed to the South by 2030.
According to the special report on the future outlook of the world in 2030, the two Koreas' reunification will be accelerated by a power vacuum that will be created during the power transfer from current North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un in the near future.
The report says the power vacuum, which is expected to happen in ten years from now, would lead to power struggle between the North's elite bureaucrats and military personnel.
While the two groups battle for the state's new leadership and identity, the report predicts that an interim North Korean government supported by the international community will be set up in two decades.
The imaginary scenario says that even though the unification would not be completed in the 20 year span, North Korea will not retain its current political economic system.
The disarmament of North Korean forces will begin during the 2020s, and the unified Korean economy will witness rapid economic development.
The report goes on to say that the gross domestic product of the unified Korean economy will record 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2030, which is slightly more than double of South Korea's GDP in 2010.
The report predicts that during the process of unification, the economy will see a sluggish 2 percent growth rate in early 2020s, but the rate will increase to 5 to six percent in the late 2020s, as the reunification faces its final stages.
According to the paper, unified Korea's population would be around 77 million by 2030.
The report adds that the reunification of the two Koreas would serve Russia's national interests, saying that the stabilization of the Korean peninsula would benefit both the Russian economy and Russia's diplomatic relations.
Park Ji-won, Arirang News.
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