Now, let's start with the big picture here, if we can. Does this global economic crisis look to you like it has indeed entered the recovery stage[Interview : Jan Friederich, Senior Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit] "We are certainly in a recovery. The big discussion and the big question is what the shape of the recovery is. I think what we will see is basically an initial relatively quick recovery which we are already seeing basically driven by very, very strong fiscal stimulus, but also of course, the end of inventory adjustments. Then, a stabilization. Then, the negative impact coming from fading out of fiscal and monetary stimulus. That will probably lead to renewed period of first a little bit more of volatility and second probably significantly lower growth for a period of time."
[Reporter : reporter: Moon Conn-young
jenmoon@arirang.co.kr] "And now, more specifically, what about the Korean economy In your view, how did the Korean economy emerge from the last 18 months of economic turmoil[Interview : Jan Friederich, Senior Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit
] "I don't think it's as many people say the weakness of the Korean won which was the main driving force. It was the shape of demand for goods that Korea is focused on. Now, for the further outlook, I think it's very important that Korea's fiscal stimulus is probably, is in fact, the biggest in the OECD, the club of rich countries. And given that the stimulus is very big now the slowdown then will also be very big. So again, there is very significant challenge for the time when the stimulus will have to be withdrawn."
[Reporter : 기자 no cg] "Following up on the stimulus measures plan, when is a good time to implement the exit strategy[Interview : Jan Friederich, Senior Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit
] "Korea is relatively strong fiscally. It has a very low debt to GDP level. So, it would be good from a global perspective if Korea could continue well into 2011 but I don't think that is going to happen. I don't think from the domestic point of view it might be the best strategy because it is necessary to bring the debt level down again to a very strong level."
[Reporter : 기자 no cg] "Do you have an economic agenda in mind for the Korean economy[Interview : Jan Friederich, Senior Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit
] "There is no doubt there's a lot that can be done to improve the prospects of Korea such as deregulation in a number of service industries, which are very heavily protected. Its labor market reforms are very important to make the Korean economy more flexible, more nimble to withstand the competitive pressure that will be arising from the surge of China. I think that is by far the most important."
[Reporter : 기자 no cg] " Last but not least, let us in your thoughts about the Korean economy in the coming years."
[Interview : Jan Friederich, Senior Economist
Economist Intelligence Unit] "We're forecasting for this year a growth of 0.6 percent but a recovery to a 4.7 percent in 2010. This is an amazing story. At the beginning of the year people were saying things like dramatic contraction in 2009. So, things have turned out very, very well for Korea. Very impressive."
NOV 06, 2009
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Arirang Town
Wednesday, FEB 10, 2010, (KST) 
